Yes, Miami actually got better

The transactions are still trickling in, but barring an unforeseen blockbuster, we can just about put a wrap on our offseason transactions. Using NBAPET, my system for projecting, evaluating and tracking the league, I’ve entered all transactions through the weekend and created a wins forecast for every team.

 

I’ve also compared the wins forecast to last season’s total of Pythagorean wins per 82 games for each team, which is the record each team should have had based on its point differential. This gives us an idea of how teams have moved up and down the NBA ladder since the Heat wrapped up the championship a couple of months ago.

 

With ESPN.com’s Summer Forecast upon us, let’s take a look at just how close these projections are to what our expert panel predicted. The first number for each team is projected wins, the second is how many games better (or worse) the team should be than it was in 2011-12.

 

1. Miami Heat: 60.5 | 2.6 
With the Bulls likely to take a big step back this season, the Heat should be able to land the East’s top seed with little difficulty, something it has gone without the last two years despite winning a pair of conference titles. Miami projects to be a top-five team on each end of the floor, displaying the most balance of any team in the league.

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